That's all folks

Well that was fun wasn't it. When was the best surf in this run? It was a close call but the main contenders had to be either low tide at Fistral north on Friday or perhaps Boobies yesterday (Mon). Fistral probably had better waves but Boobs had fewer people, in fact no people. Which made the waves even better. However, that brown mongrel which ran off with the packet of ham which was going to form the basis of a post surf sandwich did put a slight dampener on proceedings. Chutney on its own ain't the best.
Anyway i'm rambling... its a lot calmer out in the Atlantic as its that time of year when there just isn't the temperature gradient in the mid lattitudes to spawn persistent cyclogenisis like you'd tend to get in Dec or Jan.

As things settle, the last week or so high pressure has been to the east of the UK - its going to shift slowly west, to place itself well to the west of Ireland - this spells trouble as not only does it mean onshore winds but when the ridge heads north and becomes entrenched it will bring down a cooler air from the north. Brrrrrrrr. Winter might not be over yet.

If you want waves the east coast may well beckon.

this is a nice image too - today's sunshine - in all its glory. http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=United_Kingdom_Ireland.2012086.terra.250m
Big up to my big sister too, who had a bouncing baby girl today. Constance - no prizes for guessing which beach my sister plucked that one from!

OK Here it is LOADS OF OFFSHORE - annoyingly windy at times perhaps, as the isobars tighten but that shouldn't be too much of an issue.

I've been so excited that i have had my wetsuit on since Sunday. There's already reports from the Emmet saying there are A frames down there. Right, enough of this, I'm off down the beach...
a week of waves and no work -

Just checking nothing's changed

mmmm

there you go - the big three modellers are all going for the same thing. big and beefy

load 'er up

The charts are loading up one mighty run of decent waves.

This run of waves might be as good as it has been for a long time - its as about as good as its been in a long time.
There seems to be a pattern developing in recent years for some serious blocking (high pressure formation) over Eastern England during the spring. Cast your mind back to last easter and a similar pattern was in effect.
This is very good news as it keeps the wind blowing offshore way down west.

There looks like being some some nice clean small/medium sized waves from Wednesday morning onwards with periods up in the double digits right through the rest of the week and over the weekend before something more sinister pokes its nose in next Monday.
That's a long way off of course but there seems to be some good model alignment which notches up the confidence factor.

IS there a more Joyous sight than this??????

This is about as good a forecast chart can be...

CLEAR THE DECKS....

BANG offshore

I don't think its huge right now but the wind is the bangest of bang offshore and cusping on being to strong.

I expect there are some lovely peelers down at Flat Rock but unfortunately I'm stuck at work.

Some big old decisions need to be made about whether to put a request for some time off next week. Could there be a 500mb block settling on over south-eastern England? If so I'm downing tools.

Early days but just the glimmer of some damn nice waves later next week!

Altogether now - theeeeeeeeee sun has got its hat on!

A bit disappointing over the weekend but hey ho, the dog had fun on the beach. Spent much of the time battling the rips and tides and the wind never really dropped quite light enough nor did it have the decency to turn offshore.
I blame a crap forecast!

I suspect it's pretty good right now - now the mist is clearing and tide is starting to turn. As the swell is mellowing out i'm sure it will be good somewhere while the tide is coming in.

The new boards been ordered, so we'll see how that one turns out. Fingers crossed its a goodun'.
All eyes now look towards Wednesday, as a new pulse of long period tracks south and east from the north Atlantic. Don't be fooled by the lack of swell height on the forecast sites - there's a lot of energy in a 14 second swell and with the wind due south-easterly a whole lot of fun is going to be had.

The new swell will be arriving from around 0900 so the early bird might catch the worm..

'Ere, tis March and the latest clutch of forecast charts leave the depths of winter behind. Spring. This time of the year you'll often see things calm down as the big winter storms lose their oomph and head off towards the high Atlantic.
High pressure looks likes smearing itself in from the south-west through tomorrow before parking its bountiful booty over southern England over the weekend. Next week that same high sticks around keeping the wind blowing in from the south and south-east so warm days and cool nights. There won't be a whole pile of swell around next week, but there will be something, so it might be time to dust off the trusty old log and swing it about a bit. Wednesday may well be the best of the bunch when a long range effort tootles by.
Forget about waves tomorrow but I think - On Saturday the wind will just keep dropping and will barely be rustling the leaves come tea time. Good chance to get all the admin sorted in Truro on Saturday morning before heading down to the beach mid afternoon. Some of the waves forecast sites could be overestimating the wind too, and that might keep the crowd down - maybe thats wishful thinking.

Church Pews (shoes)

HIGH Pressure and barely a breath of wind this weekend should mean there'll be some fun. What little wind there is on Saturday will make things a little lollopy before berthing into the offshore domain by Sunday.
All in all it looks promising - and sunny too.

le weekend...

.... Could be good, if you are prepared to sit it out and wait.
Plenty of swell both days
The models have got 3 vs 1 against for winds to be offshore on Saturday.
Then all three are bang offshore on Sunday!
Until then it'll be howling onshore...

Next weekend

I think its more or less a given that this week is going to be a write off, but it's not all bad as there's a fair amount of action up in the north east Atlantic and that'll be a keeping the swell well above a ten second period right through the week and well into the weekend.

The american forecasters - note the big 'ole low south of Iceland early/midweek

The European forecasters are telling a similar tale.

Once the fronts associated with this low pass through the UK on Wednesday, the jet will elbow its way back towards the north and pressure will build through the Bay of Biscay on Thursday. Meteorologically speaking it's over the horizon if you want to pick out the detail of where the centre of this high will be come next weekend, BUT, most of the major models are fairly aligned and park 'er up in a neat berth across central Europe somewhere. Model alignment is one factor to look at when judging forecast confidence and the fact they have similar outcomes means it's more than 50/50 this far out.

The detail for next Sunday ... both of these beast will produce "Buttery" waves if they are come to fruition.

PS Check out me new Churches. A free sofa with every pair.

West

On the Seven Stones Light Vessel the wind's now veering from south-easterly - i think by midnight it'll be south-westerly all the way up the coast.
That's that for a while then and its looking pretty soggy on Sunday. www.raintoday.co.uk
Not much on the horizon from any of the models either.

It's probably worth pointing out here that the charts above from ECMWF tend to be the better model than the one below - which is the one most of the free surf sites use to initialise their forecasts.

Both sets of forecast charts are similar and that might tend to suggest that there is a lot of confidence in the current scenario for the week ahead.

oof

TODAY
Sun out - tick
Wind offshore -tick
swell - tick
Work - cross

TOMORROW

Light offshore puff - tick
Wind offshore - tick
Swell - tick
Work - tick

The Synoptic set up for tomorrow lunchtime rarely gets any better than it'll be tomorrow.

This little runner along the south coast on Sunday is worth watching too.

It's all change next week however, as the position of the jet (see charts below) looks like altering. The sprawling high over Europe that's been keeping the wind offshore this week looks like getting barged out the way as the door opens up to the west and northwest.