Shun...

Don't say i didn't warn you - that low from the last post did some bad things alright -

I've been hunkered down - tending to the family and am now resurfacing and autumn is well and truly here - the Atlantic has stoked up the boiler and is now pouring out some nice beefy lows - the south-westerly will be upon us for much of the weekend and most of next week, so it'll be big and bouncy along the main beaches with the usual nooks and crannies producing the goods.

From late next week, it's looking like that high pressure will build over the near continent (and there is some pretty good agreement with the models here) which will back the wind southerly towards next weekend. This could mean a proper long period, deep ocean swell is going to materialise at last, something there hasn't been for a very long time. Nadine, a hurricane which has been sloping around near the Azores for yonks, may also get tangled up in a depression late next week, to add a little brown sauce into the proceedings.

I'm not getting too excited yet but watch this space.

THURSDAY
Note TS Nadine there mooching with intent

FRIDAY
....and now Nadine engaging with the upper trough

SATURDAY
...pouring on the sauce

SUNDAY

MONDAY

Go West

It will be interesting to see how much swell gets in on the north-westerly swell that's passing by the west of Kernow tomorrow - the wind's in the right direction to make it nice if it appears - It's coming in on a NNW dirn rather than NW so it is probably going to miss the western fringe of cornwall and head down into France - It'll start to show after luncheon (give or take a few hours) IF it arrives - i'm not really that hopeful. I've seen similar stuff light up the coast all the way to the Camel, but i dont think this is one of these swells.

There's a hoolie blowing up in the Bay of Biscay too - the forecasters are looking to cyclogenisise a low pretty heavily over the coming 24 hours and then swing it up over the UK - looks pretty grim to be honest - and will be the first decent blow of the autumn through Mon and Tue - Conker time.

A not bad run of waves coming up

I think it'll be small and clean from Thursday through the weekend - perhaps one of these swells where there is a lot of waiting around, but with the odd peeler which is a notch bigger than the background swell. Winds are looking decent til sat too.

One for the log i think, which hasn't seen a lot of the sea for a while and that will know doubt mean some sketchy rides!

noon sat

By Sunday afternoon there is also a good chance of a much beefier and more interesting swell arriving from the NW - it's come from high up in the Atlantic and also a little too far east to drive it up the Cornish coast thanks to Ireland being in the way. The models don't (historically speaking) do a particularly good job of wrapping this swell in, and i am hopeful that if the wind plays ball that there is some potential. The different forecasters are also all over the place with the prognosis for Sunday mind, and in all likelihood it'll be howling onshore.

Hurricanes - we like

Ooooh, well that wasn't too bad then was it. The wind stayed nice and light this morning and there was more than enough waves to share around.

Eyes down for later this week too - its a little tricky to pull out the detail at the moment but the picture is that there is a hurricane out there and most of the forecasts have some long period swells buried somewhere in the forecast spectral plots.

There is a hurricane out there and here's where it will be on Tuesday according to the European forecasters -

Note there is a lot of calm sea between west Corn and the hurricane and this is a good thing. The type of swell you get from these kind of storms are High period swells with a low wavelength which get easily disrupted if there is a lot of local wind. Conditions look nice for the swell to run in underneath a high to the west of Corn around Weds or Thurs and then last for several days - it is a little difficult to give more detail than that as the spectral partition data from the American forecasters is currently more than 36 hours old, tainted with that 28second glitch i referred to a couple of days ago and there are multiple pulses and swells and quite a bit of divergence in the various models too.

Confused?

Let me simplify it - I reckon there could be waves later in the week, smallish but nice ones. Light offshore late Weds through to Fri - perfect for gliding on the log and enough to get the short-boarders frothing on Thursday.

This weekend...

There was some excitement earlier in the week but this is now tempered by unco-operative high pressure systems bringing an onshore wind this weekend.

Plenty swell on Saturday and I think the session of choice will be Saturday first thing, as it is then, when the wind will be lightest and closest to the south. Its not ideal but will probably be worth a sniff.

I mentioned some problems the American wave forecasters have had in recent days with their forecasts a couple of days ago. Well it appears that climate change may well be to blame - over the last few days the model parameterisation from Wave Watch 3 in polar regions cannot handle the lack of ice at the poles - (round about now polar ice is at its minimum by the way) and this record low ice has mean erroneous swell of the very high wave period variety has been seen pouring out of the poles and propagating south.

It does beg an interesting question though - what would happen to waves in the UK if you took the polar ice caps away - there is an enormous swell window sat up there in northern waters and with no ice, there could be some decent, as yet, untapped north swells. Corn, unfortunately, is too protected by the Irishers and the thistles and east shorers would be the folks who stand to benefit most.

Meanwhile - winds will probably f*&k up any chance of a decent swell this weekend - unless you can find a break which likes a north-westerly that is.

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Steaky

The american forecasters went do-lally today and all manner of strange forecasts have been poisoning the surf forecasters automated systems. Not sure what happened to the model output, but it started plugging in some crazy bad assed swells down from the north for some reason.

I think its all fixed now, but somewhere in the depths of the forecast there is some decent waves to be had from some time Friday night onwards over the weekend. You'll note some vagary there - as when there is extra tropical storm activity going on, it makes the forecast models change around a lot and getting the detail is troublesome

Storms Leslie and Michael are out there - one big and weakening - the other compact and with a lot more energy.

The first shunt of swell from Les will start to pep up through late Wednesday as the upper trough picks it up and the system deepens into a proper Atlantic belter through Thursday and Friday. The swell will arrive on Saturday before sunrise down 'ere in Kernow - the track is a little too far north to send anything too mental our way, but if it was a roast meal i'd be thinking 3 slices of beef, 3 roast pots, peas and broccoli, rather than some kind of 3 different types of meat, 2 yorkshire puddings, peas, broccoli, parsnips, cabbage (red and white), carrots onion gravy sunday lunch extravaganza with all the trimmings. Plenty to feed the ox in other words. Lets face it most people are more content with 5 foot with the odd 6-8 footer than 6-8 foot with the odd 10 footer coming through. Maybe its my age but give me the former any day.

All eyes will be focused on where the high decides to settle in over the weekend. Currently it's looking like there is good consensus in the models. But the high settles in about 60 miles too far north - If it can just nudge that tiny bit further south on Saturday when the swell is at its peak, then its is going to get REALLY REALLY good.

the Europeans think this >>> (best model)

the Met Office think this >>> (next best model)

the Seppos think this >>> (next best model)

On Sunday all the models agree with south easterlies but the main grunt of the swell will be gone by then.

Then Early next week the dregs of Michael will raft over to the eastern side of the pond and another pulse of swell is possible - too far away for the detail mind.

hoof

What looked like some good potential for the middle to the end of next week has now become something of a big blown out mess. Typical - still at least the sun has been out these last few days and there's been a few nibblers to. A blowy week's ahead, with some big and bouncy ones growling in, but there's prob too much NW in the wind to make even the sheltered spots clean up.

There's pretty good agreement in the model's that pressure looks like rising again next weekend - so there's the hope that there'll be a a few feet and a sou'easter by sunday or monday.

A couple of ex hurricanes are out there, but so far there doesn't seem much interest from any of the upper disturbances to turn one into some decent waves. some longer period stuff from one of these will reach kernow late fri or sat but i dont think the wind will be playing ball 'til Sunday

Plenty wave

Looking nice.

This is about the best set of charts I have seen in a long while - There's a lot of chopping and changing in the forecast, but plenty action out in the sea and a good chance of some south-east wind will mean nice big clean waves.

Worth a tentative clearance of the decks for the middle of next week!

push-woman-push