EggNog

Some not bad waves in the last week or so and some big units crashing in over the weekend if you were prepared to tuck in away from the wind.

I think that's going to be the story of the next week or so - There'll be waves alright but getting detail on the wind and when it will be offshore is going to be tricky in such a mobile scenario. Tuesday afternoon is probably the next decent window for some nice waves - in fact it's looking pretty classic.



It's also way to far out for any confidence but if the current set of charts from the weekend workout, then the south coast is looking pretty sexy just ahead of Christmas - might have do my shopping early and off the eggnog.

I've managed to score a work trip to the Basque country this week and am hoping to be able to swing by Mundaka - winds are forecast to be berthing in from the south-west so I have everything crossed. Camera will be at the ready so I hope to upload some pics. I bet it's pumping now - SW wind, 11 foot and 16 seconds. Same on Friday - Deep Breath!

OH dear, what can the matter be,

... three old ladies got stuck down the lavatory,
the wind was south easterly from Tuesday til, Friiiiiiiday
lalalalalala la  la

or something like that anyway.

What better way to start the week than with a forecast of southeasterly winds from more or less tonight until the end of the week - it will get pretty wild out there towards the end of the week, as the gradient tightens ahead of the next load of flooding and wild weather this weekend, but there should be plenty wave coming.

The best swell is most likely to be the Tuesday and Thursday, with Thursday getting into a range which will be getting the big waves spots raising the eyebrows.

Logs on the fire

I'm a notch more confident about next week now - several runs of the magic swell machine and Tuesday and Wednesday aren't looking too shabbuth. A nice neat pulse of swell and a lot more east now in the wind than north so pencil a couple of afternoons off and get down the beach.

spot the ball

After that and it might get into the big & beefy range for the end of the week/weekend - the Atlantic is threatening to kick up a stir and return the westerlies, with big fetch, big wind pointing big swell right into the north shore. I suspect it'll be a howling mess but if the high over Scandinvia can hang on in there and keep the wind southerly, as some of the ensembles suggest, it could get interesting.

12 out of the 20 ensemble members below all want to keep the wind sourthely next weekend - that's more than half  - 14 and 19 look particularly nice!

had forgotten about this...

...r, c and me shaking the bumptee - s on camera. 

The Siiiiiidewinder

Brrrrrr

If you don't mind surfing when it is utterly freezing, then next week is going to offer up some pretty decent waves I think.

Here's the Atlantic chart from ECMWF on Sunday - a nice low berthed up in the middle of the Atlantic and the ridge I was talking about earlier in the week snuzzled down over the UK. Meanwhile, flipping cold air is nestled in over Scandinvia and with a general easterly flow that means it'll be icy. It's not the most powerful low, nor is it aligned in the best place way but I think there's some good potential that will get waves into the medium sized range by the middle of next week.

The wind direction has some work to do to, it's a little too north of east for my liking at the moment but only by a fraction, but it will be offshore all along the Aardvark's nose so you might have to go west to get the best.

The north-westerly jet

A north-westerly jet is currently blasting us with a low pressure system every few days, with each successive low that comes through ploughing in with a howling northwesterly. Sooner or later, high pressure will settle over the north Atlantic and then it'll get cold perhaps even really cold as the radiators get switched off.

that's the theory anyway...

NW'ly low #1 (the jet is running in a rough line between Iceland and Les Alpes). 

NW'ly low #2 (jet in the same place)

#3 - and note by this time the high pressure ridges between Iberia and Iceland are linking up as the jet weakens. 

Now its blocked... the jet is gone gone elsewhere and lows are stopped from coming from the west and it'll then get cold

Good for south-easterly wind mind - these kind of patterns are great when it comes to forecasting long range and long periods of south-easterly winds. With luck, swell generators will tuck a couple of long range high period swells in under the south-easterly winds and fingers crossed these might get into the midium sized range at some point