Wednesday, 13 February 2013

Magic south-east wind from the king of the weather goblins.

This time of year the weather pattern often changes and I reckon late Feb/early March has always been a good time to take some time off work. Through Nov, Dec and Jan there is still a big temperature gradient between the poles and the Equator in the northern hemisphere, and this is what big storms and the jet steam thrives on. As winter evolves, the temperature gradient slackens as the whole hemisphere cools slowly, so by the time we get into February, the potential for massive storms diminishes and by March the potential for blocking highs to settle across N Europe is good. The key to getting some waves out of this slacking boils down to where the high settles in. Too far south and the wind is westerly over the UK, too far east and it'll be NW'erly, too far west and there's no swell. Ideally highs  settle over southern Scandinavia or the German Bight and when that happens it paarrrday time as the pressure gradient will be moving air from Brittany up to Cork. It's what hapepned in the epic spell in March 2012 and there's more than a 50/50 chance of this happening next week.  

avnpanel 500 hPa

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