Friday 30 November 2012

A view from the top

Lots of nice snow in the Alps - Meribel - with a foot of fresh pewd and the soleil shining. 

 

lolop

Barely a breath of wind this morning and nice little swell. 

mmmm

Monday 26 November 2012

North

Kiss goodbye to autumn as winter is coming - be sure to chip the crust off of the willy warmer and make sure there's enough logs outside the backdoor. North winds will dominate the weather over the coming week, which more or less kills any hope of a decent wave.

Go and find something else to do, like going to the Alps - I have no idea if anything is open yet but if it is, I'd wager there'll barely be a soul to be seen, nipple deep powder to be had and my choice would be the western Italian Alps first thing Thursday morning.



Wednesday 21 November 2012

Brrrrrrrrr

Loads more wind tomorrow before it calms down again later on Friday. Then it gets interesting - A hot stepper will sidle north-east from the Bay of Biscay overnight and into Saturday morning, but ahead of it will be a lot of slack air which will eventually brisken up to produce a south-easterly wind. The track, speed and intensity of this low are being hotly debated amongst the different forecast models right now. The wind might slacken enough on Friday evening but I think it's now a little more certain that Sat, first thing, will have a SE'ly breeze before gets windy again later in the morning. It's a small window and likely to be at its best when its dark unfortunately, but the dusky hunter or the early worm might score one in the bushes.







This low is an interesting one, as it will disrupt the westerly flow we've seen coming in off the Atlantic this past few weeks. After is whizzes though the pattern changes to a wintry one, as the upper trough moves from the Atlantic, across the UK into the North Sea putting the UK under a NE flow and more depressingly, on the cold side of the Jet.

Next week, the consensus seems to be that the same NE flow will draw in some proper bad boy cold air from Lapland.

Hiatus

Nice little south coast wave this morning - wind calmed down overnight and a little swell on the south coast. Not huge but niiice. 


Tuesday 20 November 2012

Windy

Good weather for wind farming - if you are a fan of renewable energy then this week marks a week where more clean, green, fuel free energy has been delivered to the National Grid than ever before. Move over Nigel Farage this is marvellous news. I think the record will be broken again on Thursday when the next bout of strong winds cross the country. The forecast was 100% spot on earlier in the week too, lets hope the same can be said on Thursday.

There's been some good sessions over the weekend and some of the nooks and crannies have been pumping, and will continue to pump through the week (as soon as you don't mind wind of course). The pattern will change over the weekend as the big upper trough out to the west of the UK fills in and moves east. There might be a slot on Saturday with offshore winds but otherwise it's the nooks and crannies who'll be delivering.

As you can see, there is quite a difference in the surface wind forecasters for Saturday - the top one is usually the most reliable and most favorable so fingers crossed. There'll be 3-4 foot swell tucked in underneath the wind so if it does go offshore, then party time. (i'd give it a 30% change at this stage)



 .

Friday 16 November 2012

what happened to the Sun?

The surf's still nice this morning but it's a lot smaller - the dreaded kicks in from about 2100 tonight then it'll stay that way - NWerly all day tomorrow...

...and then the scenario changes to a much more mobile scenario for next week - the jet is going to strengthen to the west of the UK while high pressure sits motionless like a fat turd stuck down the bog in western Russia - this will strengthen the gradient in the West Country, as successive fronts and bands or rain dive east. There'll be waves, and quite big ones I think, but it will be a struggle against the wind. There will be calmer moments when the wind backs south or south easterly and backs off and these will be the windows to look for but there its too early right now to give the detail other than hinting that Wednesday morning looks most favorable at the moment. Otherwise, the nooks should deliver the goods.



Wednesday 14 November 2012

more waves....

Well its been boofing through today that's for sure - and there is at least a couple more days of very nice waves to come - the size will drop steaily through the next 48 but there'll be plenty to be getting along with. 


Winds will turn onshore and over the weekend but there is good agreement from the different model providers and also the ensemble forecasts that from that from Tuesday next week that the wind is going to be purring back in from the south accompanied by more solid swell. 

Monday 12 November 2012

Looks like its locked and loaded.

It'll be too big for mere mortals I suspect, if you cast your minds back a couple of weeks, the big swell of the 20th peaked at 14seconds and 1.8m or so - this one looks like about 13 seconds and 2.5m+ swell so it'll be interesting to see what transpires.

Winds look perfect, so i suspect there'll be some nice pics of the Cribbar, while the main beachies will probably be maxing out.  


Friday 9 November 2012

Beef

More big waves look like coming - I suspect it will be bigger than it was last time around by a notch or two but the wind is a little less certain at this point. Cusping in a notch west of the south at this stage.

<BR> This is the brute which is going to produce the waves...



And depending on what model output you are looking at, the swell looking like peaking sometime on Wednesday. Could be awesome if the wind behaves.


Wednesday 7 November 2012

Weird rat plays the Sax.

Unless you're off south this next few weeks there's barely any point looking at any weather charts.

Thursday 1 November 2012

rubbish

Back to square one again. Ridge out in the Atlantic, north to north-west airflow and not much hope of anything remotely surfable.

Best to get the head down and concentrate on something else.

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