Monday, 10 September 2012


The american forecasters went do-lally today and all manner of strange forecasts have been poisoning the surf forecasters automated systems. Not sure what happened to the model output, but it started plugging in some crazy bad assed swells down from the north for some reason.

I think its all fixed now, but somewhere in the depths of the forecast there is some decent waves to be had from some time Friday night onwards over the weekend. You'll note some vagary there - as when there is extra tropical storm activity going on, it makes the forecast models change around a lot and getting the detail is troublesome

Storms Leslie and Michael are out there - one big and weakening - the other compact and with a lot more energy.

The first shunt of swell from Les will start to pep up through late Wednesday as the upper trough picks it up and the system deepens into a proper Atlantic belter through Thursday and Friday. The swell will arrive on Saturday before sunrise down 'ere in Kernow - the track is a little too far north to send anything too mental our way, but if it was a roast meal i'd be thinking 3 slices of beef, 3 roast pots, peas and broccoli, rather than some kind of 3 different types of meat, 2 yorkshire puddings, peas, broccoli, parsnips, cabbage (red and white), carrots onion gravy sunday lunch extravaganza with all the trimmings. Plenty to feed the ox in other words. Lets face it most people are more content with 5 foot with the odd 6-8 footer than 6-8 foot with the odd 10 footer coming through. Maybe its my age but give me the former any day.

All eyes will be focused on where the high decides to settle in over the weekend. Currently it's looking like there is good consensus in the models. But the high settles in about 60 miles too far north - If it can just nudge that tiny bit further south on Saturday when the swell is at its peak, then its is going to get REALLY REALLY good.

the Europeans think this >>> (best model)

the Met Office think this >>> (next best model)

the Seppos think this >>> (next best model)

On Sunday all the models agree with south easterlies but the main grunt of the swell will be gone by then.

Then Early next week the dregs of Michael will raft over to the eastern side of the pond and another pulse of swell is possible - too far away for the detail mind.

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